Exclusive: U.S. Wine Market Dips 2% By Volume, But Sees First Value Increase Since 2020
January 3, 2024With the U.S. wine market facing uncertain economic conditions and increased competitive pressure from other drinks categories, total volume decreased an estimated 2% to 322 million 9-liter cases in 2023, according to Impact Databank. While case sales are down, the industry improved on its 2022 volume performance, and is estimated to have eked out a small year-over-year gain in dollar terms in 2023, boosted by higher pricing. That marks the first value increase since 2020, when sales benefited from consumers stocking up during the pandemic.
The leading premium wine brands in the U.S. have seen mixed results over the past year, with above-$15 labels like Kim Crawford, Decoy by Duckhorn, and the Coppola Diamond Collection showing gains in off-premise channels, while others like Meiomi and La Crema have seen off-premise declines. In the above-$15 sparkling category, market leaders La Marca and Mionetto have both kept up their momentum at retail lately.
A step lower on the pricing ladder, Josh Cellars (+13.1%) and Kendall-Jackson (+6.2%) have performed the best in volume terms in the $10-$15 competitive set off-premise, as consumers have gravitated to trusted brands recently. Josh Cellars is building from a 2022 base of more than 5 million cases, according to Impact Databank, while Kendall-Jackson had a 2022 base of 2.9 million cases.
“While the consumer remains resilient and is sticking with higher-end products, behaviors have normalized,” Breakthru Beverage chief commercial officer Kevin Roberts told SND. The wine market is seeing “share gains in premium-plus price tiers and share declines in the lower-end price tiers. Retail-wise, consumers have built healthy relationships with premium-priced brands over the past few years, which we believe are here to stay in the medium-term.”
“We’re seeing red wines down slightly, with the exception of Bordeaux, which is up fractionally,” noted Jenn Engel, chief commercial sales officer at RNDC. “The 3-liter box category is trending up as it remains an affordable pantry staple.”
“Within the wine category, the sweet spot is those price tiers where the consumer believes they are getting a great value for the price,” added Zach Poelma, SVP of supplier strategy and insights at Southern Glazer’s. “The two weakest segments are the below-$10 wines and the above-$30 wines, which are both declining at high single digits over the last year but have seen some modest improvement in more recent months. The $15-$25 range has showed growth over the last year in revenue and only modest decreases in volume, far outpacing the overall wine category.”—Daniel Marsteller
| U.S.—Leading Wine Brands Priced Over $15 a 750-ml.1 | |||||
| Brand/Type | Company | Total 2022 U.S. Depletions2 |
Off-Premise Volume Growth 2023 YTD3 |
||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Table Wine | |||||
| Kim Crawford | Constellation Brands | 1.83 | 1.3% | ||
| Meiomi | Constellation Brands | 1.83 | -4.4% | ||
| La Crema | Jackson Family Wines | 1.64 | -9.8% | ||
| Decoy by Duckhorn | Duckhorn Portfolio | 1.42 | 2.2% | ||
| Diamond Collection | Delicato Family Wines | 1.03 | 1.5% | ||
| Sparkling Wine | |||||
| La Marca | E.&J. Gallo Winery | 3.03 | 8.4% | ||
| Mionetto | Freixenet Mionetto USA | 0.96 | 16.5% | ||
| 1 Average retail price a 750-ml. bottle 2 Millions of 9-liter cases 3 Year-to-date ending December 3, 2023 in Circana/IRI channels. Source: Circana/IRI and IMPACT DATABANK © 2024 |
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Tagged : Breakthru, Coppola Diamond Collection, Decoy, Josh, kendall-jackson, Kim Crawford, Southern Glazer's
