Exclusive: U.S. Wine Market Projected To Show Slight Volume Increase, More Robust Value Growth For 2019

Faced with fierce competition from whiskies, cocktails, and other alternative drinks such as hard seltzers, the total wine industry in the United States is expected to grind out a tepid 0.3% volume increase this year to 330 million 9-liter cases, according to the latest edition of The U.S. Wine Market: Shanken’s Impact Databank Review & Forecast. While the U.S. has been the world’s largest wine-consuming market since 2013, volume growth was been sluggish in each of the past eight years due to uneven economic conditions. Growth has been more robust on the value side, as consumer wine purchases rose 1.7% in 2018 and are expected to surpass $50 billion for the first time ever by year-end.

The wine industry’s total volume and dollar value continue to record all-time highs, but per-capita wine consumption is expected to decline in 2019 for the fourth consecutive year, and is projected to continue falling until at least 2025. The American wine market recorded a solid 3% annual growth rate between 2000-2010, compared to just 0.7% expected between 2010-2020. From a broader perspective, however, volumes have more than doubled over the past four decades, and are expected to add another 1 million cases by 2025.

Various segments of the market continue to keep the industry in growth mode, such as New Zealand Sauvignon Blanc, rosé from France and other origins, California red blends, Prosecco, and canned wines. Premium-priced boxed brands also continue to do well, and higher-priced segments have significantly outperformed less expensive categories. Kendall-Jackson remains the largest-selling premium-priced brand by retail value, while Veuve Clicquot Champagne continues to lead all imported wines in dollar terms, according to the 238-page report.

Barefoot Cellars remains the only wine brand with retail sales exceeding $1 billion, while the Franzia brand continues to be far and away the largest seller in volume terms. Among wine marketers, E.&J. Gallo will lead all industry players by both dollar value and case volume for the 17th consecutive year, and will extend its lead after its pending purchase of 34 brands from Constellation is completed, expected in February.

For more information and to purchase The U.S. Wine Market: Impact Databank Review & Forecast, 2019 Edition, as well as other exclusive Shanken reports and publications, visit: impactdatabank.com.—Juan Banaag

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