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U.S. Wine Market Projected To Eke Out Volume Growth This Year, As Consumers Stock Up

July 13, 2020

Wine consumption in the U.S. market initially had been expected to decline this year for the first time since 1993, but the stocking-up due to Covid-19 will be just enough to propel the market to yet another gain by year-end, albeit at a sluggish 0.2% rate, according to the recently-released 2020 edition of The U.S. Wine Market: Impact Databank Review & Forecast.

However, faced with the prospect of even more tariffs, and continued fierce competition from spirits and hard seltzer, the wine industry is projected to lose volume next year and is expected to continue to suffer modest declines, at least until 2025.

This year will mark the industry’s 27th consecutive annual gain, capping a run in which U.S. wine market volume has risen by over 80% over the past two decades. But after steadily increasing from 1994-2011, per-capita consumption is projected to decline in 2020 for the ninth straight year. And between 2020 and 2025, the market is expected to decline by 1 million cases in volume, according to the 252-page report. Growth already had been slow for much of this past decade, after a strong run that saw it more than double over the past 40 years.

Premium-plus wines (priced at least $10 a 750-ml. bottle on average) continue to perform well, having gained 10 share points in volume terms over the past decade. Impressive gains from premium boxed wines haven’t been enough to keep brands priced below $10 a 750-ml. from losing ground in both volume and value terms, according to Impact Databank.

Unfortunately, off-premise gains for premium-priced wines during the pandemic won’t be enough to offset the loss of most on-premise business during the lockdowns, and retail dollar sales for the total market are expected to decline this year.

For more information and to order The U.S. Wine Market: Shanken’s Impact Databank Review & Forecast, 2020 Edition as well as other exclusive Shanken reports and publications, click here.—Juan Banaag

U.S.Top 5 Super-Premium Priced Wine Brands

(millions of 9-liter case depletions)1

Rank Brand Company 2018 2019 Percent
Change2
1 J. Lohr Estates J. Lohr Vineyards and Wines 1.57 1.63 3.8%
2 Kim Crawford Constellation Brands 1.33 1.37 2.8%
3 Meiomi Constellation Brands 1.27 1.32 3.9%
4 La Crema Jackson Family Wines 1.28 1.30 1.6%
5 Joel Gott Trinchero Family Estates 1.00 1.10 10.0%
Total Top Five3 6.46 6.72 4.1%
1 At least $15 a 750-ml.
2 Based on unrounded data.
3 Addition of columns may not agree due to rounding.

Source: IMPACT DATABANK © 2020

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