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Impact Databank: U.S. Wine Market To Increase By Volume This Year, Owing To Off-Premise Gains

September 8, 2020

Faced with fierce competition from seltzers, premixed cocktails and other spirits, wine consumption in the U.S. had been expected to register its first annual decline in 2020 since 1993. But the surge in the off-premise is projected to be just enough to propel the overall industry to yet another volume gain, albeit at a tepid 0.2% rate, according to the current edition of The U.S. Wine Market: Shanken’s Impact Databank Review & Forecast. However, off-premise growth won’t be enough to offset the huge loss in the on-premise in value terms, and retail dollar value for the wine market is expected to decline this year.

Looking ahead, the economic recession and pandemic impacts—as well as continued pressure from other drinks sectors—will cause the overall wine market to shed volume in 2021 after 27 consecutive annual gains, according to the 252-page report. And after steadily increasing from 1994 to 2011, per-capita wine consumption is expected to be in decline until at least 2025. The U.S. wine industry recorded a solid 3% annual growth rate between 2000 and 2010, but averaged just a 0.7% increase between 2010 and 2020.

Still, vibrant growth is ongoing across a number of segments, including New Zealand Sauvignon Blanc, rosé from France and other origins, California red blends, Prosecco, and canned wines. Kendall-Jackson remains the largest-selling premium-priced brand (above $10 a 750-ml.) at retail, while Veuve Clicquot leads all imports in dollar terms, according to Impact Databank. Barefoot is the only wine brand with retail sales exceeding $1 billion, while Franzia boxed wine continues to be the largest seller in volume terms by a wide margin. Among marketers, E.&J. Gallo will lead all industry players in 2020 by both dollar value and case volume for the 19th consecutive year.

Higher-priced segments have significantly outperformed less expensive categories, as premium-plus wines continue to do well, having gained 10 share points in volume terms over the past decade. Even better growth has been registered by the super-premium sector (above $20 a 750-ml), led by Meiomi. Impressive gains by premium boxed wines, primarily from Bota Box, haven’t been enough to keep brands priced below $10 a 750-ml from losing ground in both volume and value terms.

For more information and to purchase The U.S. Wine Market: Impact Databank Review & Forecast, 2019 Edition, as well as other exclusive Shanken reports and publications, visit: impactdatabank.com.—Juan Banaag

U.S.Top 5 Wine Brands Retailing Above $20 A Bottle
Rank Brand Company Origin/Type Depletions1 Retail Value2
1 Meiomi Constellation California Table 1,367 $365.0
2 Veuve Clicquot Moët Hennessy Champagne 527 $351.2
3 La Crema Jackson Family California Table 1,304 $340.5
4 Moët & Chandon3 Moët Hennessy Champagne 406 $249.4
5 Decoy by Duckhorn Duckhorn California Table 831 $230.2
Total Top Five4 4,436 $1,536.3
1 Thousands of 9-liter cases.
2 Millions of dollars.
3 Excludes Dom Perignon.
4 Addition of columns may not agree due to rounding.

Source: IMPACT DATABANK © 2020

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