Impact Databank: U.S. Wine Volume Projected To Decline In 2021, But Premium Brands Make StridesJuly 28, 2021
After 27 consecutive annual gains, the wine industry in the United States is expected to suffer a 0.5% volume decrease this year, down to 335.4 million 9-liter cases—according to the recently released 2021 edition of The U.S. Wine Market: Shanken’s Impact Databank Review & Forecast. While the U.S. has been the world’s largest wine-consuming market since 2013, volume growth has been modest at best in each of the past ten years due to fierce competition from whiskies, hard seltzer, and other ready to-drink brands. While the wine industry registered an above-average 2% volume increase last year owing to off-premise gains during the pandemic, wine continues to lose market share to spirits and flavored malt beverages.
The American wine market posted a solid 3% annual growth rate between 2000-2010, compared to less than 1% between 2010-2020, according to Impact Databank. From a broader perspective, volumes have more than doubled over the past four decades, but are projected to fall more than two million cases between this year and 2025, according to the 251-page report.
While volume is expected to slip this year, premiumization remains a key driver of value for the industry, with higher-priced segments significantly outperforming less expensive categories. Premium-plus table wines (retailing at $10 a 750-ml. and higher) recorded solid growth in 2020, combining for a 4.4% volume increase. Premium-plus brands accounted for fully half of the total table wine market last year in dollar terms, compared to less than 10% share at the beginning of the Millennium. Italy’s Stella Rosa became the largest-selling premium-priced brand by retail value last year, while Josh Cellars rose to lead all American wines in dollar terms.
Various hot segments of the market have kept the industry in growth mode in recent years, such as New Zealand Sauvignon Blanc, rosé from France and other origins, California red blends, Prosecco, canned wines, and wine-based cocktails/RTDs. Premium-priced boxed brands also continue to do well.
Barefoot Cellars remains the only wine brand with retail sales exceeding $1 billion—according to Impact Databank—while the Franzia label continues to be far and away the largest-seller in volume terms. Among wine marketers, E.&J. Gallo will lead all industry players by both dollar value and case volume for the 20th consecutive year, and it extended its margin over its closest competitors after its purchase of over 30 brands from Constellation was completed early in 2021.
|U.S. — Million-Case Table Wine Brands Priced Above $15
(millions of 9-liter case depletions)
|1||J Lohr Estates||J Lohr Vineyards and Wines||California||1.63||1.64||0.8%|
|2||Kim Crawford||Constellation Brands||New Zealand||1.37||1.62||18.3%|
|4||La Crema||Jackson Family Wines||California||1.30||1.40||7.7%|
|5||Joel Gott||Trinchero Family Estates||California||1.10||1.15||4.5%|
|6||Diamond Collection2||Francis Ford Coppola Winery||California||1.00||1.10||10.0%|
|7||Decoy by Duckhorn||Duckhorn Wine Co. (TSG)||California||0.85||1.09||27.1%|
|Total Top Seven3||8.57||9.54||11.4%|
|1 Based on unrounded data.
2 Acquired by Delicato in 2021.
3 Addition of columns may not agree due to rounding.
Source: IMPACT DATABANK © 2021
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