Impact Databank: U.S. Wine Market Slows, But Premium-Plus Brands OutperformNovember 10, 2021
Stifled by fierce competition from other categories and the continuing effects of the pandemic, the U.S. wine market is projected to fall a slight 0.5% this year—its first annual decline since 1993—according to The U.S. Wine Market: Shanken’s Impact Databank Review & Forecast, 2021 Edition. The industry managed a modest 2% volume gain last year—aided by a surge in the off-premise—but the continuing softness of the on-premise sector will lead to further losses for the overall wine market in dollar terms.
After steadily increasing from 1994 to 2011, per-capita wine consumption is projected to decline in 2021 for the ninth time in the past 10 years. From a broader perspective, however, industry volumes have more than doubled over the past four decades—according to the 251-page report—while the wine market’s total dollar value has nearly quadrupled in the past 30 years. Last year, the category was bolstered by wine-based cocktails, which more than doubled volumes to over 5 million cases.
Several brands priced between $10 and $15 a 750-ml. bottle continued to do well in IRI channels in the year-to-date through October 3, including Deutsch Family’s Josh Cellars (+8% in dollar terms) and Treasury Wine Estates’ 19 Crimes (+28%). Last year, Riboli Family’s Stella Rosa was the U.S. market’s largest-selling above-$10 wine by retail value—and the number-one import—according to Impact Databank.
Bottled still wines priced above $15 a 750-ml. registered aggregate gains of 2.9% and 5.2% by volume and value, respectively, in Nielsen channels for the 40-week period ending October 9. These premium-plus brands (which carried an average price of $21.62 per bottle) have bucked the overall trend, while wines priced below $15 combined for volume and value losses of 12.8% and 10.8%, respectively.
Boxed wines in all price segments have also declined year-to-date in Nielsen channels—after surging last year amid the initial wave of the pandemic—and the only other growth sectors were brands sold in alternative packaging such as cans, plastic and tetra-paks. For more information regarding The U.S. Wine Market: Shanken’s Impact Databank Review & Forecast, 2021 Edition, visit impactdatabank.com.—Juan Banaag
|U.S.—Leading Premium-Plus Wine Brands1|
|2021 Dollar Sales
in IRI Channels3
|1||J Lohr Estates||J Lohr Vineyards & Wines||California||1.64||0.8%|
|2||Kim Crawford||Constellation Brands||New Zealand||1.62||0.5%|
|4||La Crema||Jackson Family Wines||California||1.40||7.5%|
|5||Joel Gott||Trinchero Family Estates||California||1.15||-1.2%|
|6||Diamond Collection4||Delicato Family Wines||California||1.10||-1.9%|
|7||Decoy by Duckhorn||Duckhorn Wine Co.||California||1.09||9.3%|
|Total Leading Brands||9.54||5.2%|
|1 $15 & over a 750-ml.
2 Millions of 9-liter case depletions.
3 52 weeks ending October 31, 2021.
4 Acquired from Francis Ford Coppola Winery in 2021.
Source: IRI & IMPACT DATABANK © 2021