Impact Databank: U.S. Wine Market Projected To Slip By Volume, Rise By Value This Year
July 20, 2022Faced with an uncertain economy and fierce competition from the proliferation of RTDs, as well as the continued strength of Tequila and whisk(e)y, U.S. wine market volume is projected to decline in 2022 for the second straight year, according to The U.S. Wine Market: Shanken’s Impact Databank Review & Forecast, 2022 Edition.
The industry has been hit hard by the pandemic the past two years, and imports were also severely affected by higher tariffs that have since been rescinded. But the on-premise sector is showing signs of recovery, which will help the wine market achieve another gain in dollar terms this year. This year’s volume decline is projected to be slightly worse than last year’s at 0.9%, according to the just-released Impact Databank report. A further 0.6% average annual loss is expected until at least 2025.
Despite a total wine volume decline of 0.6% in 2021, industry dollars grew 2.4% as premium-priced table wines (at least $15 a 750-ml.) advanced 12% by retail value, while table wines priced between $10 and $15 added a 5% gain. Meanwhile, sparkling wines (at an average of $17.24 a 750-ml.) continued to outpace the market with an 8% volume increase last year, and will keep industry volume from falling further in the near-term.
For over two decades now, E.&J. Gallo Winery has led all industry players by both dollar value and case volume, a lead it extended last year after its purchase of over 30 wines from Constellation Brands. Franzia boxed wine from The Wine Group continues to lead all brands in volume terms.
By the end of this year, however, Italy’s Stella Rosa ($13 a 750-ml.) is projected to become the industry’s largest brand by retail value, surpassing Barefoot Cellars. It’s the first time an imported wine has led the market in dollar terms since Australia’s Yellow Tail did so in 2009, according to the 247-page report.
For more information regarding The U.S. Wine Market: Impact Databank Review & Forecast, 2022 Edition, as well as other exclusive Shanken reports and publications, visit impactdatabank.com.—Juan Banaag
| U.S. Wine Market by Type (millions of 9-liter cases) |
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| Type | 2021 | 2025P | AACGR1 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Table | 290.6 | 279.7 | -1.0% | ||
| Sparkling | 24.5 | 26.5 | 2.0% | ||
| Specialty | 13.3 | 13.0 | -0.5% | ||
| Wine-Based Cocktails | 6.4 | 7.9 | 5.5% | ||
| Traditional Dessert | 3.0 | 2.8 | -2.5% | ||
| Vermouth | 1.3 | 1.2 | -3.5% | ||
| Total Wine2 | 339.2 | 331.0 | -0.6% | ||
| 1 Average annual compound growth rate. 2 Addition of columns may not agree due to rounding. Source: IMPACT DATABANK © 2022 |
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Tagged : Barefoot, Constellation, E.&J. Gallo, Franzia, Impact, Stella Rosa, The Wine Group
