Wine Spectator: Forecasting Wine’s Future

America is now wine’s biggest market, and younger drinkers are starting to shape it, Wine Spectator reports.

After passing the French and Italians for largest total wine consumption in 2011, according to Impact Databank, Americans consumed 324 million cases of wine in 2012. That’s a 7.7 percent increase over five years ago. And that number is only expected to grow in the next five years. What’s more, 2012 is the first year America was home to 100 million wine drinkers, according to a Wine Market Council (WMC) study. “One hundred million wine drinkers cannot be ignored,” said WMC president John Gillespie, at a presentation of the findings in January.

While Baby Boomers and Generation Xers make up the majority of today’s wine consumers, the large Millennial generation (ages 21 to 34) will shape wine’s future. So what impact are they already having?

One obvious change is the end of a two-color palette, as dry rosé has shifted from a minor player to frequent year-round quaff. Another is the phenomenal growth of sparkling wine, which is no longer being served only on special occasions. The third significant development is that this young generation is buying more imported wine.

Are Americans reliving the ’80s? Pink wine is in and Italian sparklers like Prosecco, Moscato and even Lambrusco are seeing strong sales. Sparkling wine consumption has increased 14 percent from 2007 to 2012, according to Impact, and currently sits at 15.5 million cases a year. But while the craze in the ’80s centered on low-priced bubbly, today there’s growth at multiple price points: while spumante Moscato off-premise sales grew 65.6 percent in 2012 and Prosecco sales rose 35.4 percent, according to Nielsen, high-end Champagne imports have surged again too. Of those bubbly buyers, 25- to 34-year-olds accounted for 21 percent of American sparkling wine drinkers in 2011, tied for largest demographic segment, according to Impact.

Young drinkers are also moving away from traditional American regions and toward imported wines. According to Impact, 25- to 34-year-olds represented 24 percent of imported table wine drinkers in 2011, a larger share than any other age group (by comparison, 55- to 64-year-olds were 15 percent of imported wine drinkers).

Americans are also experimenting more with grape varieties. The sales growth of domestic red blends, 21.6 percent off-premise last year, suggests willingness to move away from the comfort of easy-to-understand single grape wines. “At tastings, people used to say, ‘Oh, Malbec,’ but they say, ‘Oh, it’s a blend,’ now,” said Cleo Pahlmeyer, whose family flagship is a Napa Valley Bordeaux blend. “I definitely see more interest in blends. People regard them more highly [now].”

For Wine Spectator’s full take on the U.S. wine market’s future, click here.

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