U.S. Wine Market Likely To Decline Again In 2023, But $15 And Over Brands Remain Buoyant

After 27 consecutive annual gains, wine industry volumes fell for the second year in a row in 2022, according to the 2023 edition of The U.S. Wine Market: Shanken’s Impact Databank Review & Forecast, to be released next month. Following the global financial crisis of over a decade ago, the industry rebounded with 10 straight increases in dollar terms, but those too have fallen the past two years. Faced with inflationary pressures, tough competition from upscale spirits, and the continued proliferation of RTDs, the U.S. wine market is expected to decline once again in 2023.

Even though the industry had been hit hard by the pandemic, tariffs, and supply-chain issues the past few years, wines priced $15 and over a 750-ml. have bucked the downward trend and continue to outperform less expensive brands. Gallo’s La Marca Prosecco leads all wines priced over $15 a 750-ml. in both volume and dollar terms, while Constellation Brands’ Meiomi is the largest-selling premium-plus American wine, according to the Impact Databank report. Double-digit gains were recorded in 2022 by $15 and over California brands Decoy by Duckhorn and Bread & Butter, as well as by New Zealand’s Whitehaven.

Other upscale brands above the 500,000-case threshold which registered double-digit increases last year include California’s Daou and Sonoma-Cutrer, France’s Gerard Bertrand, and Italy’s Ruffino Prosecco, according to Impact Databank. The resilience of higher-priced wine has continued into this year. While table wine sales in Circana channels were down 2% by dollar value in the calendar year to-date period ending May 21, wines priced above $15 a 750-ml. grew a combined 2% off-premise. Meanwhile, Treasury Wine Estates’ 19 Crimes Snoop Cali Gold is enhancing sparkling wine growth, in its first full year on the market.

After steadily increasing from 1994 to 2011, adult per-capita wine consumption declined last year for the 10th time in the past 11 years, with the only exception being 2020, when the market benefited from a pandemic-induced boost off-premise. Per-capita consumption is expected to decline again this year, according to the Impact Databank report, but from a broader perspective, wine market volumes have more than doubled over the past four decades, while the industry’s total dollar value has nearly quadrupled in the past 30 years.—Juan Banaag

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