BDSA Projects $55 Billion In Global Cannabis Sales By 2027
October 16, 2023Global legal cannabis sales will reach $55 billion in 2027, according to a new forecast by market intelligence firm BDSA. The company released its latest five-year global predictions, which indicate that the industry is poised for substantial growth driven by adult-use sales.
In the U.S., markets in the Midwest and Northeast are driving sales growth among recreational consumers. BDSA forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 11% from 2022 to 2027, resulting in a $43 billion legal U.S. cannabis market in 2027. The adult-use channel is expected to represent a significant $35 billion of those sales. While more mature state markets like California and Colorado have seen their growth level off, even these are expected to grow over the period, with California returning to growth in 2025 and reaching $5.35 billion in annual sales by 2027, while Colorado climbs by single digits to $1.7 billion.
“New York, Missouri, New Jersey, and Maryland are set to experience significant market growth, with New York and New Jersey each projected to be $2.5 billion markets by 2027,” said Roy Bingham, co-founder and CEO of BDSA. “While mature markets like California and Colorado continue to face stagnating or declining sales, Michigan has emerged as an outlier and is expected to become a $3.8 billion market by 2027.”
In Canada, BDSA predicts legal sales to rise 9% this year to $4.6 billion. It projects a compound annual growth rate of 5% through 2027, when sales are expected to reach $5.3 billion. Adult-use sales are anticipated to account for $4.3 billion in 2023, while the medical channel will gradually decline to $200 million by 2027.
Elsewhere, global markets beyond the U.S. and Canada are set to experience substantial growth, expanding by 38% in 2023 to reach $2.4 billion in sales. International cannabis markets are projected to maintain a 29% CAGR between 2022 and 2027, reaching $6.3 billion in sales by 2027. This growth will primarily come from adult-use channels. Although Germany is scaling back its legalization plans, it still plans to introduce a limited pilot program. In Mexico, adult-use sales are forecasted to start in the second half of 2024 and reach $1.5 billion by 2027.
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