Impact Databank: Winemakers Find Pockets Of Growth At Higher Price Tiers

As wine continues to lose share to RTDs and fast-growing spirits categories such as Tequila and premium whiskies, total wine consumption is expected to decline in the U.S. for the third consecutive year in 2023, according to The U.S. Wine Market: Shanken’s Impact Databank Review & Forecast. In fact, total spirits market volume is projected to surpass that of wine by 2025 for the first time in over 45 years.

After falling 3.2% by volume in 2022, the U.S. wine market’s decline will narrow to a projected 1% loss this year, according to the 245-page Impact Databank report. Uncertain economic conditions have put some pressure on wines priced above $15 a 750-ml., but the $10-$15 sector remains resilient.

Total wine case volumes are down 4.8% in the year-to-date ending October 8 in Circana channels, but $10 and over brands such as Josh Cellars and Kendall-Jackson have bucked the trend. Also continuing to do well in 2023 are over-$15 labels Kim Crawford, Decoy by Duckhorn, and Coppola Diamond Collection. Premium boxed wines (3 liters or less) have also outperformed.

“(Consumers) are trying to stretch their dollars, so they’re shopping the deals and promotions, and we expect to see that through the holiday season,” The Wine Group chief revenue officer Amy Hoopes recently told SND. “We expect to see retailers leaning into the over-$12 price category with some promotional activity to spur the consumer to continue to engage.”

Overall, after being severely impacted by the pandemic, the wine market in the U.S. continues to face increased pressure, and moderate declines are projected for the industry until at least 2030, according to Impact Databank. Aside from premium-priced wines, other segments that will keep the category from declining further include sparkling brands and wine-based cocktails/RTDs.

For more information regarding The U.S. Wine Market: Impact Databank Review & Forecast, 2023 Edition, as well as other exclusive Shanken reports and publications, visit impactdatabank.com.

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