Exclusive: U.S. Spirits Market Projected To Grow 5% In 2023
November 7, 2023In spite of high inflation and uncertain economic conditions, the U.S. spirits market is projected to again grow nearly 5% by volume in 2023, according to The U.S. Spirits Market: Shanken’s Impact Databank Review & Forecast. The industry is expected to crest 300 million 9-liter cases for the first time ever this year, and its five-year growth rate between 2018 and 2023 is projected at over 5% annually in volume terms—even after the effects of the pandemic.
While momentum has decelerated somewhat from the prior decade, the super-premium sector remains resilient. Last year, $25 and over Tequila brands surged nearly 20%, while $25 and over Bourbon and other straight American whiskies registered 8.5% growth, according to Impact Databank’s 275-page report. Diageo, the market’s number-one player, had been impacted by the post-pandemic normalization trend, but is expecting a gradual sales improvement in its 2024 fiscal year, led by its single malt Scotch range and Tequila brands—particularly upscale brand Don Julio, which Diageo says is up 20% so far this year.
Three $40 and over Tequila brands—Patrón, Casamigos, and Don Julio—are projected to be among the top five spirits overall by retail dollars in the U.S. this year, all at over $1 billion apiece. That places them behind only Tito’s vodka and Hennessy Cognac, according to Impact Databank. Tequila became the second-largest spirits category overall in dollar terms last year and is projected to surpass number-one vodka by mid-decade. And while supply chain issues disrupted shipments during the pandemic, 100% blue agave brands surged again in 2022, comprising over 70% of the Tequila market in the U.S. for the first time ever.
Even with decelerating growth, total spirits industry volume in the U.S. is projected to surpass that of wine by mid-decade, according to Impact Databank. And by year-end, the total number of spirits servings consumed annually is expected to surpass those of beer—each drink serving comprises 1.5 ounces of spirits, compared to 12 ounces of beer.
For more information regarding The U.S. Spirits Market: Impact Databank Review & Forecast, 2023 Edition, as well as other exclusive Shanken reports and publications, visit impactdatabank.com.—Juan Banaag
| Million-Case Spirits Priced Over $30 A 750-ml. | |||||
| Brand | Company | Type | Total 2022 Case Volume1 |
Off-Premise Volume Growth 2023 YTD2 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hennessy | Moët Hennessy USA | Cognac | 3.73 | 8.5% | |
| Patrón | Bacardi USA | Tequila | 2.93 | -7.2% | |
| Casamigos | Diageo North America | Tequila | 2.38 | -0.1% | |
| Don Julio | Diageo North America | Tequila | 2.08 | 4.2% | |
| Woodford Reserve | Brown-Forman | Bourbon | 1.28 | 6.8% | |
| Johnnie Walker Black | Diageo North America | Scotch Whisky | 1.04 | 2.5% | |
| Rémy Martin | Rémy Cointreau USA | Cognac | 1.03 | -2.5% | |
| Teremana3 | Mast-Jägermeister US | Tequila | 0.92 | 7.9% | |
| Total Million-Case Spirits Above $304 | 15.38 | 2.7% | |||
| 1 Millions of 9-liter cases. 2 40 weeks ending October 8, 2023 in Circana/IRI channels. 3 Exceeded one million cases on a rolling 12-month basis in 2023. 4 Addition of columns may not agree due to rounding. Source: Circana/IRI and IMPACT DATABANK © 2023 |
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Tagged : Casamigos, Don Julio, Hennessy, Impact, Patrón, Tito's
