Florida’s Cannabis Market Could Reach $5-$6 Billion In First Year Of Adult-Use

With adult-use cannabis legalization on the ballot in November, Florida is poised to be the next hot market in the U.S. cannabis industry. The first year of sales in the Sunshine State could range from $4.9 billion to $6.1 billion, according to industry analysts Headset.

Florida is especially well positioned to make the transition to adult-use sales, with the state already seeing $2 billion in medical sales annually from nearly 900,000 registered patients. The upcoming ballot measure must pass by a margin of 60% or greater and would legalize recreational sales to adults 21 and older.

With adult-use sales likely following six months after legalization, the analysis projects that cannabis sales in Florida would hover around $400 million per month with a peak of nearly $450 million in sales roughly a year after adult-use sales begin. The projection is based on observations from the adult-use rollout in Maryland, a state that likewise had a thriving medical market prior to opening up recreational sales. In such markets, Headset sees sales jumping by 2.25-fold at legalization, rising to a projected 2.4x increase when the market reaches maturity.

Currently, the Florida medical market is dominated by Trulieve, which has 134 dispensaries and makes up more than one-third of dollar sales in Florida. The company is the market leader by a wide margin, commanding 40% of flower sales and 30% of concentrate sales all on its own. Trulieve owns 21% of all dispensaries in the state. Headset predicts that Trulieve could see $1.69 billion in Florida sales during the first year of adult-use.

Curaleaf, Ayr Cannabis, MuV, and Surterra Wellness are also among the market leaders. Curaleaf commands a 13.4% market share by dollar value, with a strong position in concentrates, in which the company makes up 16% of the market compared to 11% of the market for flower. Behind Curaleaf is Ayr at 9.5% of dollar sales and 13% of the concentrate market and 5% of flower sales. In the first year of legalization, Headset projects that Curaleaf will reach $650 million in Florida sales and Ayr will top $450 million. MuV and Surterra round out the top five cannabis companies in Florida with 9.2% and 7.3% of dollar sales, respectively.

There are also a few upstart companies ready to claim a larger share of the market upon adult-use legalization. Among them are Cookies Florida, Inc., which has seen rapid growth from a small base, with flower sales projected to more than double in 2024 and concentrate sales projected to rise over 700%. Two other players to watch are Sunburn and Sunnyside (the retail banner of Cresco), which have seen significant growth in market share and number of locations in the past year. —Shane English

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