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With Shares Near A Four-Year Low, Diageo Becomes Subject Of Takeover Talk

July 9, 2024

With a portfolio totaling approximately 246 million cases globally, according to Impact Databank, Diageo continues to lead the global spirits market by a wide margin, boasting an enviable stable of brands including Johnnie Walker—the most valuable spirits brand worldwide—Smirnoff, Crown Royal, Don Julio, Casamigos, Captain Morgan, Baileys, Tanqueray, Bulleit, and Buchanan’s, as well as Guinness beer.

Slower industry conditions over the past year, along with an unforeseen downturn in Latin America last fall, have sent Diageo’s share price downward recently, with analyst chatter now framing the drinks giant as a potential takeover target.

Noting that Diageo’s stock was trading at a four-year low last week, Russ Mould, investment director at UK-based AJ Bell, said, “That bargain valuation, at least relative to Diageo’s history, could make it a takeover target for an opportunistic rival with deep pockets or a private equity firm loaded up with cash to do deals. A prospective bidder might take the view that current problems are fixable and that now is a good time to swoop on a portfolio of well-known brands.”

While part of Diageo’s recent slide is attributable to the same market headwinds facing its rivals, the company was also buffeted last fall when it was forced to issue a profit warning owing to steep declines in its Latin America business. That resulted in a one-day decrease of 12% in its share price, which has continued to trend downward in the ensuing months.

Diageo has also seen key changes to its global and U.S. leadership teams over the past year, with company veteran Debra Crew becoming CEO last summer, succeeding the late Ivan Menezes, who had led the business for a decade. In the U.S., former Clif Bar and Tyson Foods executive Sally Grimes was named CEO last fall. Meanwhile, U.S. president and COO Claudia Schubert, another longtime exec, recently announced she will be departing in September. The U.S., where Diageo sells approximately 40 million cases annually, according to Impact Databank, accounts for almost half of the company’s global profit.

There’s no doubt about the attractiveness of the Diageo portfolio for prospective acquirers, with Johnnie Walker worth nearly $10 billion in global retail value according to Impact Databank, along with Smirnoff at $3.7 billion and Crown Royal and Baileys both around $2.4 billion. But any suitor would have to come up with a solid premium to Diageo’s current market cap of around £56 billion ($71b).

Nearly a decade ago, it was rumored that 3G Capital, a major shareholder in Anheuser-Busch InBev—the world’s largest brewer with a market cap of $107 billion—might make a play for Diageo, but a deal never came to fruition. It would take someone with similarly deep pockets to mount a bid now, even after the slide in Diageo’s share price.

“A prospective bidder for Diageo might argue the premiumisation trend could easily bounce back and that there is still a big opportunity with alcohol, as well as offering low or no alcohol versions of well-known products,” said Mould.—Daniel Marsteller

Diageo—Top 8 Brands in the U.S.
(millions of 9-liter case depletions)
Rank Brand1 Origin/Type 2022 2023 Percent
Change2
1 Smirnoff Domestic Vodka 8.8 8.4 -4.0%
2 Crown Royal Canadian Whisky 7.2 6.6 -8.5%
3 Captain Morgan Virgin Islands Rum 5.4 5.0 -6.5%
4 Ketel One Imported Vodka 2.5 2.5 -0.5%
5 Casamigos Tequila 2.4 2.5 2.9%
6 Don Julio Tequila 2.1 2.4 14.5%
7 Johnnie Walker Scotch Whisky 2.0 2.0 -2.0%
8 Bulleit Bourbon/Rye 1.7 1.8 2.9%
Total Top 8 Brands3 32.0 31.0 -2.9%
1 Includes flavors, excludes RTDs.
2 Based on unrounded data.
3 Addition of columns may not agree due to rounding.

Source: IMPACT DATABANK © 2024
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