Exclusive: U.S. Wine Market Projected To Eke Out Value Growth In 2024

The U.S. wine market is expected to see its fourth volume decline in a row this year, but its total value is projected to eke out a small increase, according to Impact Databank. After a long period of growth that included 27 consecutive annual volume gains, the wine industry is expected to slip by another 2% this year, according to the 2024 edition of The U.S. Wine Market: Shanken’s Impact Databank Review & Forecast.

Further volume losses are projected for the rest of the decade, as spirits continue to gain share—RTDs and Tequila in particular. Total spirits consumption is expected to surpass that of wine by 2026, according to the recently-released 248-page report. Wines priced $10 and over are expected to outperform less expensive segments and will propel the overall industry to a small gain in total dollar terms in 2024—its first increase since the onset of the pandemic.

In spite of inflationary pressures, the above-$10 segment continues to garner share, led by Deutsch Family Wine & Spirits’ Josh Cellars. Excluding its Prosecco and Reserve variants, Josh is expected to register another double-digit gain this year and surpass 6 million cases, according to Impact Databank. After launching its Hearth Cabernet Sauvignon variant last year, Deutsch further extended Josh this year with Seaswept, a new blend of Sauvignon Blanc and Pinot Grigio. Including Reserve and Prosecco, the Josh portfolio is projected to be the market’s largest-selling wine in dollar terms by next year.

Other premium and above wines posting double-digit gains last year include WX Brands’ Bread & Butter, Treasury Wine Estates’ Daou Vineyards, and Gallo’s Whitehaven, according to Impact Databank.

Among other bright spots within the industry, wine-based cocktails continue to thrive—led by the Beatbox and Buzzballz brands, the latter recently acquired by Sazerac—and are expected to crest 10 million cases in 2024.

The “better-for-you” segment also registered another double-digit gain last year, as younger American drinkers increasingly opt for health- and wellness-oriented brands. The low-calorie sector is expected to reach 3 million cases by the end of the year. In addition, de-alcoholized wines continue to make inroads, led by Trinchero’s Fre, Opici’s Giesen 0%, and Riboli Family’s Stella Rosa.

For more information regarding The U.S. Wine Market: Shanken’s Impact Databank Review & Forecast, 2024 Edition, as well as other exclusive Shanken reports and publications, visit impactdatabank.com.—Juan Banaag

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