Treasury Pulls Guidance, Citing U.S., China Challenges
October 13, 2025Treasury Wine Estates (TWE) has pulled back its previous financial targets for its fiscal year ending next June owing to headwinds in the U.S. and China markets. The company also paused a A$200 million ($130m) share buyback program that it had initiated in August.
In the U.S., Treasury said the distributor transition from RNDC to Breakthru in California has slowed its depletions in that market, the largest in the U.S., although luxury sales outside the Golden State are up 5%, led by the Daou, Frank Family, and Stags’ Leap brands.
In August, TWE said it was expecting a A$50 million ($33m) impact from the distributor transition, and that its U.S. sales and profit outlook would be cloudy until it had finalized exit negotiations with RNDC. Those discussions are ongoing, covering “a number of factors, including the treatment of the remaining inventory (A$100m NSR value) currently held by RNDC in California (which includes the 0.2m case excess of shipments to depletions in California, as disclosed in August),” the company stated.
Treasury is aiming to achieve a settlement that fully covers any impact to profits associated with RNDC’s California closure, but noted that it’s no longer appropriate to maintain its previous forecast of “modest EBITS growth” for Treasury Americas this fiscal year.
In addition, Treasury is monitoring softer conditions in the China market, where there’s been a slowdown in large-scale banqueting occasions, causing it to pull its previous Penfolds guidance of low to mid double-digit EBITS growth in F26 and approximately 15% EBITS growth in F27.
The news comes with Treasury in transition, as former CEO Tim Ford departed on September 30. His successor, Diageo veteran Sam Fischer, takes the helm on October 27.—Daniel Marsteller
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