Cannabis On the Ballot In Five States Today
November 3, 2020Voters in New Jersey, Arizona, Mississippi, Montana, and South Dakota will consider cannabis legalization in today’s election, with huge implications for the U.S. market. Eleven states and several U.S. territories have legalized adult-use cannabis to date and more than 30 operate robust medical programs. An additional 13 are home to some sort of limited, low-potency, or CBD-only medical marijuana system; only Idaho, Kansas, and South Dakota remain among states that make no concessions on criminalization, although that may change in South Dakota tonight.
New Jersey’s Question 1 is the top ballot initiative to watch, though the outcome does not promise much suspense. After a failed legalization push in 2019, the state legislature referred the issue to public consideration. New Jersey voters appear prepared to make a change—among four polls conducted over the last six months, support has not fallen below 61% and opposition has steadily dropped from 34% in Monmouth’s April poll to 23% in Stockton University’s poll last month.
Beyond its borders, New Jersey is being looked at as the first potential domino to fall in the tristate area. By beating New York and Pennsylvania to the punch, the Garden State could reap an out-of-state windfall from residents in New York City and Philadelphia. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, who has pushed for legalization in his state the last two years, recently reiterated the draw of cannabis tax revenue, especially now that Covid-19 has pressured the Empire State’s coffers. Pennsylvania Governor Tom Wolf has also begun speaking out in support of the issue. Likewise, Rhode Island is in the early stages of preparation to legalize because, according to governor Gina Raimondo, the state is being hemmed in by legal markets such as neighboring Massachusetts and will be forced to deal with the costs of recreational cannabis without the benefits unless it acts.
Polling also looks promising in Arizona, where Proposition 207 would legalize recreational cannabis. Arizona is an interesting state because its medical market has provided an inroad for major cannabis producers and it has a large senior population, who have adopted cannabis use enthusiastically in other states. Five polls have been taken on the issue since May and only one of them, from OH Predictive Insights, has shown support below 50%. Two Monmouth polls from September and October showed support rising from 51% to 56%, with a symmetrical drop in opposition from 41% to 36%. More than $2 million was poured into the legalization effort by Harvest Health, Curaleaf, and Cresco Labs.
Montana, which has had a medical program since 2004, will consider full recreational legalization as well, with taxes set at 20% and individuals allowed to grow four plants at home. The measure is supported by Democratic gubernatorial candidate Mike Cooney but opposed by Republican challenger Greg Gianforte. In a Montana State University poll from last month, support sat at 49% and opposition at 39%.
In South Dakota, a state constitutional amendment is on the table to enshrine cannabis legalization. The amendment would further require the state legislature to pass laws creating a medical cannabis program and allowing hemp sales by April of 2022. According to Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy’s survey late last month, 51% of respondents supported, 44% opposed, and only 5% were undecided.
Mississippi’s ballot features Initiative 65 and Alternative 65A. Initiative 65 would create a medical cannabis program that features more than 20 qualifying conditions. Alternative 65A supports approving the state legislature’s much narrower proposal, which would restrict smoking cannabis to terminally ill patients and require oversight by licensed physicians. Voters can also select “neither” and oppose both. According to a poll from May, I-65 was at 52% support, 65A was at 23%, and “neither” was at 6%.
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